Provincial officials say while vaccinations in long-term care settings are paying off, progress in containing COVID-19 has stalled as variants of concern continue to spread across Ontario.
Posted Mar 12, 2021, 05:23AM EST
Provincial officials say while vaccinations in long-term care settings are paying off, progress in containing COVID-19 has stalled as variants of concern continue to spread across Ontario.
New modelling data released by Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Table on Thursday suggests that while there has been a decline in community cases and the test positivity rate has levelled off, most public health units are now seeing an increase in COVID-19 as regions have begun to relax restrictions.
As more Ontarians get vaccinated, focusing that coverage on areas where the impact is greatest will be important as real-world evidence has shown vaccines reduce infection and decrease transmission.
The data shows that vaccinations in long-term care are paying off as staff and resident cases continue to decline while deaths have flattened. The province reported its first death among long-term care residents on Thursday after five days of no new deaths while 85 total deaths were reported this past week across the province.
The variants of concern continue to spread across the province and controlling the rate of that spread will determine whether we return to normal or face a third wave.
An additional 48 cases of variants of concern were confirmed in the province on Thursday, bringing the provincial total up to 1,025.
According to the modelling, the province could see upwards of 8,000 cases a day by April in a worst-case scenario. Under a best-case scenario, the province could see fewer than 2,000 cases day. Under the most optimistic projection, the province could see over 1,600 daily cases by early April. Those numbers will depend on the province’s efforts when it comes to dealing with the spread of variants and vaccination efforts, according to Dr. Adalsteinn Brown.
Our behaviour over the next few weeks is critical in determining the quality of our summer
The modelling data also shows that the strain COVID-19 patients are putting on the health care system continues to take a toll.
The decreases in COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU occupancy have started to level off following a subtle decline. Officials say we could see between 400 and up to 600 COVID patients in the ICU under the best and worst case scenarios, which amounts to a “small increase on top of an already strained system.”
There also remains a high volume of postponed care and missed screening and preventative care across all sectors. As of February 21, there were more then 227,000 backlogged surgical cases while cancer screening volumes have “declined substantially,” setting up long-term consequences for cancer outcomes.
