COVID-19 Deaths are expected to increase over the next few weeks and could exceed 25 deaths per day within a month, according to new projections from Ontario health officials. Ontario reported 35 deaths on Thursday.
Posted Dec 11, 2020, 06:13AM EST
COVID-19 Deaths are expected to increase over the next few weeks and could exceed 25 deaths per day within a month, according to new projections from Ontario health officials. Ontario reported 35 deaths on Thursday.
Cases of COVID-19 continue to increase across the province, however the percentage of positive tests appear to be flattening.
Based on current projections, if Ontario remains at the status quo for cases, we would stay under 2,000 cases a day through to mid-January.
If there is one per cent growth, the province could hit 2,500 cases per day. In the worst case scenario, at five per cent growth, there could be almost 10,000 cases per day by Jan. 10.
The ICU occupancy is expected to remain above 200 beds for the next month and could go higher if restrictions are relaxed.
There has been an over 90 per cent increase in hospitalizations over the last four weeks and a 165 per cent increase in ICU patients.
Test positivity remains the highest in Peel Region at 11 per cent, followed by York Region and Toronto at six per cent.
Health officials say restrictions first introduced in September up until Nov. 16 has not nearly had as much impact on people’s mobility and contacts as it did during the original March lockdown in Toronto and Peel Region, however mobility data since the current lockdown began in those areas has not been provided by the province.
The original data from the province compared the two lockdowns, but health officials clarified what the mobility data represented during the presentation of the projections.
The mobility numbers were calculated up until Nov. 16 are based on devices leaving their homes. During the initial lockdown in March and April, mobility dropped just over 75 per cent in Toronto and Peel Region to around 40 per cent.
As of Nov. 16, both have hovered around 60 per cent.
Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams said data indicated residents were not heeding calls to cut non-essential travel as much as they did during the province’s first shutdown in the spring.
He said people need to stay home as much as possible, especially as the holidays approach, if Ontario is to be successful in fighting the virus.
“There’s a lot of people out there on the move,” said Williams. “We have got to get that down.”
The reproduction number of the virus is fluctuating around one, which health officials say means we are at a critical juncture where case rates can change quickly.
Contract tracing continues to be an issue in Toronto as 70 per cent of cases have no epidemiological link. The next highest is Peel Region at 28 per cent.
Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the experts behind the projections, said the virus’ growth rate is fluctuating around one to one and a half per cent, which means that Ontario is at a “critical juncture.”
Even if Ontario limits the growth rate of the virus to zero per cent, the province will still see around 2,000 cases daily by the end of the month. If growth accelerates to five per cent, Ontario will see 10,000 cases a day by the first week of January.
“It’s really important to understand that at this point, where the reproduction number is fluctuating around one, small changes, even just in a little bit of time, can lead to substantial growth,” Brown said.
Williams cautioned that any relaxation of public health measures would likely lead to increased case growth.
He said he will recommend additional restrictions for some regions, which will likely be announced Friday.
“We’re in a very precarious stage here and we have to really watch carefully if we are not going to have to close some things further,” he said.
