New modelling from the Ontario COVID-19 science advisory table shows vaccinations will need to increase and contacts need to decrease to 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels to avoid a “substantial” fourth wave in the province that could see new cases surge to 9,000 a day.
The science table says vaccinations need to accelerate to 85 per cent of the population fully vaccinated in order to have an impact. The province is currently at 76 per cent.
With schools reopening and more workplaces returning to work combined with the Delta variant, the modelling shows we could reach 9,000 COVID-19 cases per day if transmission increases by 25 per cent by the beginning of October.
If transmission decreases by 25 per cent, mostly due to reduced contacts, they predict the province could see around 500 cases per day.
ICU capacity could also spike to 850 admissions by mid-October if transmission increases.
In order to reduce contacts, the science table recommends residents reduce indoor density, maintain social distancing and limit large gatherings.
Indoor masking and working from home should also continue along with implementing policies that increase vaccinations, like a proof-of-vaccination certificate that the province introduced Wednesday.
In a tweet, the table said, “If we open things up more now, and if vaccination rates stay where they are, ICUs could get overwhelmed by October — beyond what we saw in the third wave back in April and early May.”
The modelling also shows COVID-19 vaccines have had a significant impact on reducing severe illness and cases.
The latest round of modelling comes on the same day that the province announced a new vaccine certificate program that would bar unvaccinated people from a variety of businesses and services.
In a statement from the Ministry of Health, a spokesperson said they are confident Ontario is trending between the medium and best cast scenario. They also added while the forecasting projects from the best to worst case scenario, Ontario has never experienced the latter.
“There’s no question the months ahead will require continued vigilance as we confront the fourth wave,” read the statement. “We remain committed to ensuring the health and safety of Ontarians and will continue to make decisions based on the best medical advice available from Dr. Moore and his team.”
NEW YORK — Relentless rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ida sent the New York City area into a state of emergency early Thursday, as the storm carried into New England with threats of more tornadoes.
New York’s FDR Drive, a major artery on the east side of Manhattan, and the Bronx River Parkway were under water by late Wednesday evening. Subway stations and tracks became so flooded that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority suspended all service. Videos posted online showed subway riders standing on seats in cars filled with water.
Other videos showed vehicles submerged up to their windows on major roadways in and around the city and garbage bobbing down the streets.
“We’re enduring an historic weather event tonight with record breaking rain across the city, brutal flooding and dangerous conditions on our roads,” New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said while declaring a state of emergency in New York City late Wednesday.
Gov. Kathy Hochul also declared a state of emergency for New York state.
The National Weather Service office in New York declared its first-ever set of flash flood emergencies in the region Wednesday night, an alert level that is reserved for “exceedingly rare situations when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a flash flood is happening or will happen soon.”
New York City put in place a travel ban until 5 a.m. ET Thursday for all non-emergency vehicles.
The National Weather Service recorded 3.15 inches of rain in New York’s Central Park in one hour Wednesday night, far surpassing the 1.94 inches that fell in one hour during Tropical Storm Henri on the night of Aug. 21, which was believed at the time to be the most ever recorded in the park.
Earlier Wednesday, the storm blew through the mid-Atlantic states with at least two tornadoes, heavy winds and drenching rains that collapsed the roof of a U.S. Postal Service building in New Jersey and threatened to overrun a dam in Pennsylvania.
Social media posts showed homes reduced to rubble in a southern New Jersey county just outside Philadelphia, not far from where the National Weather Service confirmed a tornado Wednesday evening. Authorities did not have any immediate information on injuries.
The roof collapsed at the Postal Service building in Kearny, New Jersey, with people inside, police Sgt. Chris Levchak said. Rescue crews were on scene into the night, with no immediate word on the number of people or severity of injuries.
Gov. Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency in all of New Jersey’s 21 counties, urging people to stay off the flooded roads. Meteorologists warned that rivers likely won’t crest for a few more days, raising the possibility of more widespread flooding.
At least one death was reported in the state. Passaic Mayor Hector Lora told news outlets that someone died in the city after being submerged in their car.
Soaking rains prompted the evacuations of thousands of people after water reached dangerous levels at a dam near Johnstown, a Pennsylvania town nicknamed Flood City. An official said later Wednesday that the water levels near the dam were receding.
Utilities reported hundreds of thousands of customers without power in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
In Rockville, Maryland, water had almost reached the ceilings of basement units Wednesday when crews arrived at an apartment complex. A 19-year-old was found dead, another person was missing and about 200 people from 60 apartments near Rock Creek were displaced, Montgomery County Fire Chief Scott Goldstein said Wednesday.
A tornado was believed to have touched down along the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland.
“In many years I have not seen circumstances like this,” Goldstein said.
The National Weather Service had predicted flooding from what remained of Hurricane Ida, saying steep terrain and even city streets were particularly vulnerable to a band of severe weather that extended to Massachusetts, where tornado warnings were issued early Thursday.
Tropical Storm Henri hit the region a little more than a week ago, causing flooding and leaving the region saturated and more vulnerable to this week’s torrents.
Tropical Storm Larry was strengthening and moving quickly westward after forming off the coast of Africa earlier Wednesday. Forecasters predicted it would rapidly intensify in a manner similar to Ida, becoming a major hurricane with top wind speeds of 120 mph (193 kph) by Saturday.
A man is dead after a fire broke out at an apartment building near Bloor and Sherbourne streets.
Fire crews were called to Huntley Street around 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday for a fire in an apartment on the seventh floor.
The man was rushed to hospital where he later died.
A second person was also taken to hospital but is in stable condition.
The fire was knocked down quickly.
The Ontario Fire Marshal’s office has been called in.
Vaccine Hunters Canada, the volunteer-run organization which has helped thousands of Canadians find COVID-19 vaccines, will stop posting on their social media pages on Tuesday and pivot towards self-serve tools.
The team of over 100 volunteers shared hundreds of updates daily on their multiple social media channels including Twitter and Discord for almost six months, helping Canadians find details about clinic locations, times and eligibility.
They amassed hundreds of thousands of followers including over 250,000 on Twitter.
With vaccines more widely available across the country, the website launched by the team will now have automated operations and consolidated services in their free multilingual tools “Find Your Immunization” and “Vaccine DIY.”
As of August 31, over 51 million vaccines have been administered in Canada and over 76 per cent of eligible residents are fully vaccinated.
In one of their final tweets, @VaxHuntersCanada paid tribute to the volunteers who helped run their social media with a video, saying, “Since March, they’ve posted thousands of updates, responded to thousands of questions, and helped save thousands of lives.”
Vaccine Hunters also partnered with the City of Toronto early in their vaccination campaign to help residents find appointments at city-run clinics.
The volunteers have received an immense amount of praise for their role in helping Canadians navigate an oftentimes confusing COVID-19 vaccine rollout, especially in Ontario.
Marie-Philip Poulin scored in overtime and Canada beat the five-time defending champion United States 3-2 on Tuesday night for its first gold medal at the women’s hockey world championship since 2012.
Poulin, the Canadian captain, skated down the left side, took a pass from Brianne Jenner and sent it off the crossbar and post before going in. The goal was initially waived off and play continued in the sudden death 3-on-3 overtime until the buzzer sounded after a video review.
The Canadians rushed the ice and piled on top of each other in celebration of their 11th title at worlds.
“It’s so weird how it happened,” Canadian forward Sarah Fillier said. “We were all sitting on the bench, thinking we have to go finish this next 11 minutes off. But the buzzer went and we all jumped on. It’s so crazy, but it’s so cool.”
Canada fell behind 2-0 in the first period _ for just its second deficit in the tournament. But the Canadians scored two goals, 2:29 apart, in the second to tie it.
Jenner scored on a power play when she corralled the puck in front of the net and brought it from backhand to forehand to get around the left pad of Nicole Hensley.
Jamie Lee Rattray tied it by redirecting Jocelyne Larocque’s shot from the point. Rattray nearly won it with 90 seconds to go in regulation but her breakaway shot went off Hensley and deflected off the post.
“I think our team stuck with it from the start `til the end. We showed a lot of character,” Canadian forward Melodie Daoust said. “Just to be able to celebrate from here, on home soil with our family and friends, I think it’s amazing.”
Five of the last seven world finals between Canada and the U.S. have gone to extra time, including 2011, ’12, ’16, and ’17.
“That’s why it’s the greatest rivalry in sports,” U.S. forward Amanda Kessel said.
Alex Carpenter opened the scoring for the United State for a third straight game. She batted her own rebound between the legs of goalie Ann-Renee Desbiens.
Carpenter scored her fifth goal of the tournament, all in the last three games, on a power play just 12:35 into the game.
The U.S had won eight of the previous nine titles, including 2019 when Canada didn’t reach the final for the first time in the history of the tournament that began in 1990.
In the third-place game, Petra Nieminen scored her sixth goal of the event and Finland beat Switzerland 3-1.
Finland claimed its 13th bronze medal at the event. Switzerland was going for its second bronze _ the first coming in 2012 against the Finns.
Tanja Niskanen needed just 99 seconds to put Finland on the board. Niskanen was left unmarked and skated to an open late to send it over the glove of Saskia Maurer for her first goal of the tournament. Finland started the second period in a similar fashion as Ella Viitasuo scored 54 seconds in on a shot off the post for a 2-0 advantage.
Nieminen gave Finland a 3-1 lead, three seconds into a power play late in the second period, by redirecting Michelle Karvinen’s shot from the point.
Lara Stalder pulled Switzerland within 2-1 three minutes later, finishing a 2-on-2 opportunity after a key save by goalie Saskia Maurer at the other end.
Ontario optometrists are set to withdraw provincially insured eye services starting today after a breakdown in talks with the provincial government over reimbursement of costs.
The province’s health plan covers annual eye exams for residents aged 19 and under, 65 and older and people with specific health conditions.
The head of the Ontario Association of Optometrists said starting today, optometrists will call affected patients to cancel appointments and place them on waiting lists.
Dr. Sheldon Salaba says his group’s members are currently paying for around 45 per cent of those services and says the job action comes after disappointing talks on the issue with the government.
He says there will be a delay in service for people covered by the Ontario Health Insurance Plan until talks resume.
However, he says people should still contact optometrists with emergencies for help reaching a family doctor or another health-care setting.
“We are going to help them navigate, depending on what is happening to them, the best option for them to receive care,” Salaba said in an interview.
The province has offered to pay optometrists $39 million to retroactively account for increased costs of services.
It has also offered to increase reimbursement by 8.48 per cent.
Salaba says optometrists want an increase of 70 per cent to close the gap.
A spokeswoman for Health Minister Christine Elliott said the government will continue funding the affected services, and “any decision to withdraw services is the decision of individual optometrists.”
“The offer on the table is an extremely fair and reasonable one, and we urge the Ontario Association of Optometrists to commit to working with us to reach an agreement to ensure Ontarians continue to access the care they need and deserve,” Alexandra Hilkene said in a statement.
The province said approximately 2.9 million Ontario residents received provincially insured optometry services in the 2019-20 fiscal year.
A new poll suggests the Conservatives and NDP have momentum heading into the second half of the federal election campaign, while the Liberals are bleeding support.
Thirty-four per cent of decided voters who took part in the Leger survey said they support Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives — ahead of the Liberals and up four percentage points since Aug. 16, when the campaign got underway.
Support for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats is also up four points, to 24 per cent.
Support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, meanwhile, is down five points to 30 per cent, while Green party support is down three points to two per cent.
In Quebec, support for the Bloc Quebecois stands at 29 per cent, behind the Liberals at 33 per cent.
The online poll of 2,005 Canadians, conducted Aug. 27 to 30 in collaboration with The Canadian Press, cannot be assigned a margin of error because internet-based polls are not considered random samples.
A planned announcement on a provincial vaccine certificate program which was scheduled for Tuesday is on hold.
Sources had told CityNews earlier in the day that Premier Doug Ford was set to unveil its plans on Tuesday, finally bowing to pressure from opposition leaders and numerous health organizations who have been calling for a provincially administered proof of vaccine system.
The provincial cabinet is said to be debating the various elements of the program which would limit access to certain non-essential services based on vaccination status.
Ford has long pushed back against the idea, saying as recently as July 15th he was “not going to do it” and that he was not in favour of having a “split society.”
RELATED: Vaccine certificate program to be introduced by Ford government: sources
Local medical officers of health have talked about implementing their own regional programs, but have urged the provincial government to take the lead role for simplicity sake.
Similar systems have already been announced in British Columbia and Quebec.
On Monday, the GTHA Mayors and Chairs issued a statement saying they look forward to the details of a provincial proof of vaccination program.
“We believe such a province-wide system accompanied by appropriate guidelines for implementation will be crucial to protecting the progress we have made fighting COVID-19 and will help us all combat a fourth wave and the Delta Variant – both of which represent continuing challenges to the significant progress made to date,” read a statement from the group, which includes the mayors of Toronto, Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton and Aurora.
Ontario opposition parties held a joint meeting with major stakeholders in the province on Monday, including health care and education groups, to discuss a certificate or passport program.
NDP health critic, France Gelinas, and the leaders of the Green and Liberal parties, outlined specifically that the certificate system must be clear and simple, easy to access, useable in areas where a mobile phone might not get a great signal, and most importantly consistent for the entire province.
Gelinas says the phrase, “don’t reinvent the wheel” came up in the stakeholders’ meeting, with the suggestion that a “copy and paste” of the Quebec system would work just fine for Ontario.
A motorcyclist is dead following a crash in the High Park area of the city.
Police say the motorcyclist, believed to be in his 30s, was headed westbound when he collided with the driver of a van on Bloor Street West near Indian Road just after 10 p.m. Monday.
When emergency personnel arrived they found the motorcyclist trapped underneath the vehicle, suffering from life-threatening injuries. Life saving measures were attempted but he pronounced dead at the scene.
Police are investigating the exact cause of the crash.
The U.S. State Department is now urging Americans to “reconsider travel” to Canada due to what the Centers for Disease Control call “high” levels of COVID-19 infection.
The new Level 3 travel advisory, issued today, marks a quick end to a three-week period when the warning to would-be travellers to Canada had been eased to “exercise increased caution.”
That Level 2 advisory coincided with Canada’s decision to allow fully vaccinated U.S. citizens and permanent residents back into the country.
There was no specific reason given for the revised advisory beyond the CDC’s notice, also issued today, which pegs Canada’s current COVID-19 levels at “high.”
Only about 61 per cent of eligible Americans are fully vaccinated, compared with nearly 75 per cent of Canadians over the age of 12.
The U.S. is maintaining its existing restrictions on non-essential Canadian travellers until at least Sept. 21, citing the ongoing spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19.
